An NDTV Poll of Polls has shown that the BJP is returning to power in Madhya Pradesh, where it has ruled for close to two decades, barring a 15-month period when the Congress won in 2018. The Poll of Polls has projected that the BJP will win 124 of the state's 230 seats while the Congress will emerge victorious in 102. 

The majority mark in the state is 116.

Of the eight exit polls on which the Poll of Polls is based, three have predicted that the BJP is coming back to power in the state in a clean sweep. The Congress may not be down and out, however, with three others giving it a slight edge. 

The BJP's Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who first became chief minister in 2005, is looking for a fifth term, but his party has not declared him as the candidate for the top job this time around. The Congress campaign is being led by state unit president Kamal Nath, who is being supported by senior party leader Digvijaya Singh. 

Health warning: Exit polls often get it wrong.

News 24-Today's Chanakya has predicted a clear, comfortable victory for the BJP in the heartland state. The exit poll's prediction for the ruling party is 151 while the Congress is projected to be reduced to 74, more than 40 seats short of the majority mark. 

Another exit poll that has predicted a clear victory for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh is India Today-Axis My India, which has said that the party is expected to win 140-162 as opposed to the Congress' 68-90. It is also unique in giving 0-2 seats to the alliance between the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Gondwana Gantantra Party in the state. All the other exit polls have predicted zero seats for that alliance. 

India TV- CNX has also predicted a sweep for the BJP, projecting that the party will win 140-159  seats, while the Congress will be restricted to between 70 and 89.

The exit poll by Republic TV-Matrize has given an edge to the BJP, predicting that the ruling party will win between 118 and 130 seats. The prediction for the Congress is that it will emerge victorious in 97-107 seats and other parties will get 0-2. 

The predictions by TV 9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat swing in favour of the Congress, however, with the party being projected to win between 111 and 121 seats and the BJP being restricted to 106-116. The constituencies where other parties are projected to win are between zero and six.      

The poll by Dainik Bhaskar has also given a slight edge to the Congress, predicting that the party will win 105-120 seats while the BJP is expected to win between 95 and 115 seats. The number for other parties is also quite high, between 0 and 15, indicating that they may have a role to play if the BJP or the Congress fall short of a majority.

The Congress and BJP also seem neck-and-neck according to the Times Now ETG poll, with the former having a slight advantage. The exit poll has predicted 109-125 seats for the Congress and between 105 and 117 for the BJP.

Jan Ki Baat has the closest prediction in its exit poll, with the numbers indicating that the results could go either way. It has projected 102-125 seats for the Congress, 100-123 for the ruling BJP and five for Others. 

The BJP campaign has been led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the party has avoided giving a clear answer on whether Shivraj Singh Chouhan will be the chief minister if it wins in Madhya Pradesh. The party has also fielded seven MPs, including union ministers Narendra Singh Tomar, Prahlad Patel and Faggan Singh Kulaste, for the Assembly polls.

These factors have led to speculation that the BJP may be looking beyond Mr Chouhan for the top job, but several experts have pointed out that the senior leader, who is also known as 'Mama', remains the party's most popular leader in the state. 

For Kamal Nath, who is the Congress' state unit chief, these elections have become doubly important following the rebellion by Jyotiraditya Scindia in 2020, which had led to his government collapsing after just 15 months. Asked about the rebellion ahead of the elections, Mr Nath had said the Congress is confident of returning to power in the state and does not need Mr Scindia to do so.