The Congress has a distinct edge over the BJP in its bid to retain power in Chhattisgarh, an NDTV poll of polls indicated Thursday evening. The Congress may win 49 seats – just above the majority mark of 46 – while the BJP bag only 38 seats, it showed.
If the Congress and Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel do go on and win this election, it will be a big boost for the ruling party ahead of next year’s Lok Sabha polls.
The most definitive predictions are from News24-Today’s Chanakya and Times Now-ETG.
The former gave the Congress 57 seats in the 90-member Assembly, where the majority mark is 46, and the BJP 33. Times Now said the Congress will win between 48 and 56 seats, and the BJP 32-40.
Chhattisgarh voted in a single phase on November 7. Results will be declared on Sunday.
Among the rest, Republic TV-Matrize, Dainik Bhaskar and India TV-CNX also indicated a win for the Congress. Republic TV gave the ruling party 44-52 seats, and Dainik Bhaskar and India TV 46-55/6.
Republic TV gave the BJP 34-42 seats. Dainik Bhaskar gave it 35-45 seats and India TV 30-40.
The other exit polls gave the Congress an edge, but suggested it might be short of majority and that the BJP might have a chance. Between them, ABP News-C Voter, India Today-My Axis, and Republic TV-Matrize gave the Congress between 40 and 53 seats, while the BJP got between 34 and 42 seats.
The other two polls – Jan Ki Baat and TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat – also hinted at a Congress win. Jan Ki Baat indicated 42-53 seats and TV9 Bharatvarsh gave it 40-50, while the BJP got between 34 and 45.
Health Warning: Exit polls often get it wrong!
NDTV’s Pre-Poll Survey
The exit poll data seems to tally with opinions canvassed by NDTV in its October pre-poll survey, which indicated 79 per cent of voters are happy with Mr Baghel’s government.
They indicated that key infrastructure, such as drinking water supply, construction of roads, and the quality of state-run hospitals and schools have all improved under the Congress government.
A significant result was that 45 per cent of voters said Chief Minister Baghel had improved the condition of various tribal communities, compared to only 21 per cent who thought this was not the case.
And Mr Baghel was overwhelmingly respondents’ choice to be the next Chief Minister – 39 per cent compared to 24 per cent for the BJP’s campaign face – Raman Singh.
What Happened In 2018?
.In the 2018 election, the Congress swept to a landslide win with 68 seats to its name and the BJP, which won 49 seats in 2013, got just 15. Interestingly, the vote share difference wasn’t as pronounced as the split of seats suggested; the BJP got 33 per cent of the votes and the Congress got 43 per cent.
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