There are lessons to learn from the rise of Chinese influence in Nepal and India’s challenges in that country
Published Date – 29 March 2024, 11:59 PM
By Jayant Chandel
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Bhutan was marked by several big proclamations and agreements. First and foremost, Bhutan, for the first time in its history, conferred an Indian PM with its highest civilian award — ‘Order of the Druk Gyalpo’. India and Bhutan also signed several MoUs and agreements related to energy, supply of petroleum, oil, lubricants and related products, cooperation in the domain of sports and youth, and digital connectivity. Both the close partners also agreed to a ‘Joint Plan of Action on Space Cooperation’ to enhance cooperation in the field of space technology. Both countries also agreed to increase cooperation in the field of digital connectivity. In this regard, an MoU between the National Knowledge Network of India and the Druk Research & Education Centre was signed.
These announcements, coupled with the earlier agreements to enhance railway links with India’s northeast region and Bhutanese plans to develop Gelephu city as an economic powerhouse with Indian aid, are signs that there is a will to reinforce the existing friendly ties and commitments. By agreeing to link Gelephu city, situated with the trading points in Assam and West Bengal, both countries further aim to connect this ambitious project to Southeast Asian countries like Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Malaysia in future.
However, if we look beneath these diplomatic niceties, one of the underlying causes behind this enhanced bonhomie is the strategic vulnerability of both India and Bhutan in this changing world order. These proclamations are a sign of anxious partners seeking to maintain their historic ties amid all the upheavals in the region which stand to test this partnership.
India’s Challenges
Historically, India has considered South Asia as its backyard and tried to limit the influence of outside powers in this region. India has considered Bhutan as a vital country and partner in her quest to secure her eastern Himalayan borderland which includes the vulnerable Siliguri Corridor or Chicken’s Neck. As a result, throughout most of her independent history, India has guided Bhutan’s foreign policy — a provision which was only officially revoked in 2007 when both countries signed a new treaty of friendship.
Apart from these bilateral changes in recent years, South Asia as a region has seen a major alteration in regional power dynamics. This is marked by the rise of China as a major power, the aggressive Chinese wolf diplomacy to woo small states of the region and finally the enhanced Sino-Indian rivalry in the South Asian region in recent years. In this strategic environment, India’s influence has waned significantly especially in countries like Sri Lanka, Maldives and Nepal to varying degrees. Furthermore, the Indian military has directly clashed with the PLA over territorial disputes in the disputed Ladakh region. As the region is in flux, China is now trying to develop diplomatic ties with Bhutan while simultaneously negotiating the disputed territories with Bhutan. Naturally, India is wary of these developments.
Tough Task for Bhutan
Meanwhile, Bhutan faces strategic challenges of its own. As a small state, it faces an emerging and aggressive China. Moreover, both countries have outstanding territorial disputes. Therefore, as a smaller power, Bhutan, which shares a close partner with India, faces an extremely tough task of balancing Indian security interests. They rest in the disputed Bhutanese territory of Dokhlam. Bhutan ceding the Dokhlam plateau to China in the ongoing bilateral talks will make India’s Chicken’s Neck more vulnerable.
On top of these strategic challenges, Bhutan faces another big problem as the migration of its citizens to Western countries like Australia and Thailand in proportionally greater numbers threatens the economic prosperity and future of the country itself. Bhutan’s former Prime Minister described the situation in 2021 as dire because they “want a Bhutan without Bhutanese and we also do not want these very few Bhutanese working elsewhere”.
In the present economic situation, it is not uncommon to see certain sections of Bhutanese business and youth question the lack of economic ties with the northern neighbour and question Bhutan’s overreliance on India. This economic trend is worrying Bhutanese policymakers. The launch of the massive Gelephu city project and the announcement of railway lines with India’s northeast region indicate that the kingdom considers the issue too important for their national interests. India aims to leverage its geographical advantage by providing Bhutan with trade opportunities via the Bay of Bengal and the Southeast Asian region. Thus, the issue of migration is not only a threat to Bhutanese interests but has the potential to influence Indian interests in the region too. Especially, as Bhutan democratises more in the future, such dissenting voices will only become more vocal as the frustrated youth seek opportunities elsewhere.
Future of Ties
In such an environment, it is hardly surprising that India is the key player behind these economic initiatives which address certain fundamental economic challenges for Bhutan. How India addresses these issues will decide the future trajectory of Indo-Bhutan relations and India’s positional advantage in the Himalayan country. In the neighbourhood where traditional Indian dominance is challenged by China as it emerges as a viable major power in the South Asian region, the stakes are too high for Indian diplomacy. India must merge its strategic interests in the country with that of the economic aspirations of the youth of Bhutan. Failure to do so risks making China a more attractive partner.
There are lessons to learn from the rise of Chinese influence in democratic Nepal and India’s challenges in that country. An increasingly democratic Bhutan cannot ignore the aspirations of its youth. If India must cement its position, it has to do a more robust job and address those economic challenges. India already has the experience, economic potential, strategic requisite, geographical advantage and well-entrenched presence in the region. The future depends on carefully leveraging them while nurturing the historically friendly ties.
(The author is a PhD Scholar at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi)
