There is a high probability that a La Nina, which is associated with strong monsoons, above average rains and colder rains, will replace the El Nino by July, bringing much needed above average rainfall across the country
Published Date – 13 February 2024, 11:19 PM
There is a high probability that La Nina, associated with strong
monsoons, will replace El Nino by July, say experts.
Hyderabad: Meteorological experts are forecasting a promising monsoon season for 2024, with a high probability of above-normal rainfall not only in Telangana but across the Country.
There is a high probability that a La Nina, which is associated with strong monsoons, above average rains and colder rains, will replace the El Nino by July, bringing much needed above average rainfall across the country.
Madhavan Rajeevan, former secretary at the union Ministry of Earth Sciences, has clearly indicated that favorable conditions are emerging, primarily due to the weakening El Niño phenomenon and the potential development of La Niña by July.
Rajeevan stated that there is a greater than 50 per cent likelihood of a La Niña event occurring, which historically correlates with abundant monsoon rains in India. He highlighted the significance of the transition from El Niño to La Niña, noting that such shifts have often resulted in positive monsoon outcomes in the past.
Citing historical data, Rajeevan underlined years such as 1972-73, 1982-83, 1987-88, 1997-98, 2002-2003, 2009-2010, and 2015-2016, when La Niña episodes following El Niño events led to robust monsoon seasons in India.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, characterized by abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, has a significant influence on global weather patterns, including the Indian monsoon. El Niño typically suppresses monsoon rainfall in India, while La Niña tends to enhance it.
Interestingly, the forecast made by the Indian weather researchers is quite in-line with their counterparts in National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of United States, which has predicted that there is 60 percent probability of La Nina conditions developing between August-September and October.
Taking to social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Rajeevan felt that such a forecast should sent positivity across the country. “By July, La Lina could develop and more than 50 percent probability. High probability for 2024 monsoons should spread good feeling across the country,” he said.
El Nino: EL Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO) are widely associated to trigger widespread changes in atmospheric conditions, especially has a major influence on global weather patterns including Indian monsoons. It is associated with hot summer and weak monsoons.
La Nina: It refers to the ENSO phase in which sea-surface temperatures are cooler than normal than the warmer phase of El-Nino. Due to interactions between ocean and wind systems, El Nino and La Nina are almost opposite impact on weather events. La Nina is associated with stronger monsoons, above average rains and cold winters.
