Telangana results now will also indicate whether these national players are in a position to challenge a strong regional player in a State
Published Date – 04:24 PM, Wed – 29 November 23
The outcome of Assembly elections in Telangana is set to determine the fate of two national parties—the Congress and BJP—in the crucial battle for power in the ensuing Lok Sabha elections slated in April-May 2024. Telangana results now will also indicate whether these national players are in a position to challenge a strong regional player in a State.
The Congress is seeking to test its self-assessment that the party is in a resurgent mode all over the country as a sequel to Bharat Jodo Yatra undertaken by Rahul Gandhi and its impressive performance in Karnataka Assembly polls. The BJP is also testing the waters in Telangana to see whether its Narendra Modi-centric campaign will help the saffron party in turning the tables against strong regional parties which are well-entrenched in other States such as West Bengal, Orissa, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.
In this sense, for both the Congress and BJP, it is a no-holds-barred fight in Telangana not only against each other but also a regional political force which has begun going places after Telangana Rashtra Samithi was transformed into Bharat Rashtra Samithi with the aim to emerge as a counter-force to the hegemony of BJP and Congress at the national level. Looked at this way, Telangana polls are a litmus test for BRS as well. The pink party is taking on the “might” of both the national rivals to achieve a hat-trick by retaining power in Telangana as a prelude to its ambition to challenge the mutual game played by BJP and Congress to turn electoral politics into a bipolar contest with no space for regional parties.
That both the BJP and Congress are fighting a grim battle in Telangana is apparent from the way they have deployed their “resources” in the campaign in the State. The entire top-brass of the Grand Old Party and the Saffron brigade descended on Telangana from all across the country. Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Vadra, Mallikarjun Kharge, along with other AICC functionaries and former union ministers, as well as Chief Minister, Deputy CM and other ministers from Karnataka, campaigned for days in the State.
Modi, Amit Shah, other union ministers, chief ministers and ministers of other BJP-ruled States, JP Nadda and party functionaries from other states spent days addressing public meetings, rallies and road shows in Telangana. Foot soldiers of all the wings of Sangh Parivar—RSS, VHP, Bajrang Dal, Durga Vahini etc–also went round contacting the voters.
In this backdrop, both the national parties have raised their stakes very high here. To back up their claims of wresting power in the State, the Congress leaders say that there is a wave in the air in their party’s favour. BJP leaders also feel that a ‘saffron’ wind is blowing in the State thanks to Modi-Shah magic which will help the party to ward off Congress challenge and project itself as an alternative to BRS.
Both the Congress and BJP have come up with plethora of promises in their manifestos, apart from “Six Guarantees” and “Modi Guarantee.” At the same time, they have resorted to patently negative campaigns against each other as well as the BRS. They virtually stooped to lowest depths of vituperative demagogy in their bid to “conquer.” Calling names and threatening the rivals with jail became the “hallmark” of their bitter campaign this time.
But can the national players succeed in cornering their formidable regional rival in Telangana this time? What is their track-record in successive Assembly and Lok Sabha elections since the State was formed in 2014? In 2014, when Assembly and Lok Sabha polls were held simultaneously, the Congress was cock-sure of its victory as it had delivered on its promise on Telangana. BJP also sought a big pie of the electoral cake on its claim that it played the “midwife” to the birth of Telangana by supporting the AP Reorganisation Bill in Parliament. But their claims fell flat as the people overwhelmingly credited KCR and TRS for forcing the hands of the then UPA government to fulfill its promise on Telangana statehood.
While TRS walked away with 63 Assembly seats and 11 Lok Sabha seats, the Congress tally was just 21 assembly seats and two Lok Sabha seats. BJP-TDP alliance together managed to get 20 assembly seats and two Lok Sabha seats. When KCR dissolved the Assembly to seek early polls in 2018, the Congress stitched a Grand Alliance with its arch-rival– the TDP—as well as Telangana Jana Samithi and CPI in a bid to dethrone the BRS. BJP had to go it alone in those elections.
The outcome was, once again, disappointing to the Congress as it failed to wrest power and it had to settle for 21 seats (including two for TDP). The BJP’s strength was reduced to just one member in the Assembly. TRS vastly improved its tally by securing 88 seats. Lok Sabha elections in 2019 brought some cheers to national parties as the BJP won four seats and the Congress bagged three seats as against the BRS tally of 9 seats. But the reasons for their gains were different and there is another story behind it.
The Congress and BJP– and the nation as well– are literally awaiting the verdict of Telangana voters on December 3 when the counting will be taken up. Will it be a triple hat-trick: a third term for BRS, successive failure of Congress to grab power for three times in a row, and the unenviable record of BJP of being relegated to the third position in three successive polls? Or, will the results be different from the last two times: 2014 and 2018?
