India’s top pollsters believe BRS will form govt for third consecutive term

“There are plenty of examples in Indian politics where Chief Ministers had a run of ten plus here and if that repeats in Telangana, it shouldn’t be any surprise,” Prof. Sanjay Kumar of Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi, said

Hyderabad: After several noted poll agencies and organisations predicting that the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) under the leadership of Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao would retain power for the third consecutive term, India’s top pollsters, journalists and academic institutions too have come to a conclusion that the BRS would form the government in Telangana after the November 30 assembly polls.

The Institute for Governance, Policies & Politics, New Delhi, organized the second installment of its roundtable discussion series, “Politics in the South of the Vindhyas” on the Telangana Assembly Elections on Friday in New Delhi, wherein the participants came to a conclusion that the BRS was going to form the government in Telangana for the third consecutive term.

The participants agreed that the Congress was gaining some momentum but it was very difficult to say that it could surpass the 18 percent vote share gap of the last elections because of its own problems and the popularity of Chief Minister Chandrashekhar Rao. They further stated that the welfare schemes and the governance of the BRS government in the last two terms was being appreciated by people although there were some gaps.

However, they felt that the opposition, mainly the Congress, had not been able to capitalize on these gaps and anti-incumbency.

Discussing the current face of Telangana Politics, Prof. Sanjay Kumar of Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi, said while the Congress campaign had gained momentum, BRS had an edge. He further elaborated that while BRS has ruled for 10 years, that does not itself lead to anti-incumbency sentiment. “There are plenty of examples in Indian politics where Chief Ministers had a run of ten plus years and if that repeats in Telangana, it shouldn’t be any surprise,”he said.

He further stated that in the last Assembly election while BRS had a 46 percent vote share, the Congress vote share was 28 percent and in a span of five years, a party has never been able to cover a margin of 18 percent of electoral votes. “While it might be difficult to give numbers, BRS’s loss is an unlikely scenario. There will hardly be a 10 percent decrease in the vote share of BRS. It would be interesting to see how these votes get divided between BJP and Congress,” said Pradeep Gupta, Chairman and Managing Director of Axis My India.

Telangana has moved on from its identity issues to more electoral issues of governance and welfare, Director of C-Voter Yashwant Deshmukh said, adding that the Congress leaders lack conviction and would not be able to ride the anti-incumbency wave to form a government. “BRS’s best bet is utilize the resources at hand, to best of its ability and form the government as it did in 2018,” he said.

Resident Editor of The Hindu (Telangana), Ravi Reddy said anti-incumbency was still prominent and Hyderabad and its surrounding constituencies would contribute largely to how the results pan out.

There was a unanimous consensus that the BJP was a distant third in the race and that voters would not want to waste their vote by voting for the BJP, which clearly seems unable to form a government, further weakening its prospects.