Editorial: New diplomatic challenge

Given the Muizzu government’s pro-China outlook, Indian influence in Maldives now hangs in the balance

The victory of pro-China candidate Mohamed Muizzu in the recent presidential elections in Maldives, a strategically important archipelago, poses a big diplomatic challenge for India. Located just 70 nautical miles away from India’s Minicoy Island, Maldives, a tourist hub famous for its pristine tropical beaches, is traditionally seen to be part of India’s sphere of influence. New Delhi has financed several infrastructure projects in the country which holds high strategic value because of its location at the crossroads of vital maritime routes in the Indian Ocean. Ensuring maritime security and safeguarding the free movement of ships through these waters is of vital importance to India. Muizzu’s surprise win comes as a wake-up call for India and is bound to have an impact on its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy. His poll campaign plank had not only focused on strengthening ties with Beijing, it was also about aiming to undermine India by calling for an end to any Indian military presence in his country of half a million people scattered across more than 1,000 islands. With the change of guard, the road ahead may not be easy for New Delhi. Given the new government’s pro-China outlook, the future of Indian influence and development projects hangs in the balance. India enjoyed cosy ties with Muizzu’s predecessor Ibrahim Solih who took office following a landslide victory in 2018 against Muizzu’s mentor and former President Abdulla Yameen. On its part, Beijing has been relentlessly trying to undermine Indian influence in Maldives and Sri Lanka, apart from driving a wedge between India and its close Himalayan neighbours — Nepal and Bhutan.

China’s arm-twisting strategy through money and muscle power to subjugate the nations in the region is a real threat to India. Beijing is all out to encircle India in its neighbourhood through its infamous ‘String of Pearls’ policy. For years, the Maldives has remained under the strong influence of India. But Xi Jinping’s aggressive plan for the expansion of China’s influence through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has finally reached the Maldives, which crisscrosses key trade routes wherein both India and China vie for control and influence. Unlike his predecessor who had adopted the ‘India First’ policy, Muizzu ran a fierce ‘India Out’ campaign, politicising India’s defence and development assistance and fanning nationalist sentiments. The tiny island nation is at the heart of the Indian Ocean and the evolving Indo-Pacific world order. The country is surrounded by crucial sea lines of communication, and strategically located between India and Diego Garcia — making it a preferred destination for operating a military base and maritime surveillance. With such strategic stakes, China has been visibly upset in the past five years with India and the United States making inroads in the country. With Muizzu in power, Beijing might renew its support to major infrastructure projects and expand diplomatic and political engagements.