In an increasingly uncertain world, bridging differences and working collectively to address global challenges is a necessity.
Published Date – 20 January 2024, 11:58 PM
By Dr Ramesh Chennamaneni
The theme of the 54th Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) at Davos was Rebuilding Trust. After intense conversations and debates, the WEF, held from January 15-19, and attended by over 2,800 government representatives, CEOs, board presidents and envoys from 120 countries, including 60 heads of state, drew to a close.
Davos could indeed provide a crucial space for all the participants to focus on the fundamental principles driving trust, including transparency, consistency and accountability. Even the Open Forum for civil society and the general public found a voice in the discussions. The core themes that saw serious attention were tense geopolitical situation; artificial intelligence; launching of Future of Growth Initiative and environmental risk. As the discussions and outcomes have to be analysed carefully and in the right context objectively, this write-up summarises the first impressions of the basic agenda setting and the deliberations.
Global Risks Report
The important base for the discussions was the Global Risks Report 2024. If we look back at the events of 2023, plenty of developments, such as vulnerable populations grappling with lethal conflicts from Sudan to Gaza and Israel, alongside record-breaking heat conditions, drought, wildfires and flooding, captured the attention of people around the world. Societal discontent was palpable in many countries, with news cycles dominated by polarisation (mis- and disinformation), violent protests and strikes.
As we enter 2024, a detailed Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) of 2023-24, based on key risk categories such as Economics, Environment, Geo-Political, Societal and Technological highlighted a predominantly negative outlook for the world over the next two years that is expected to worsen over the next decade. This is undoubtedly a very alarming signal for the world leaders and the civil society.
Based on the Perception survey, the Global Risks Report 2024 names climate change, demographic changes, technology and geopolitics as the changing ‘structural forces’ that are making the world less stable. Indeed, this fallout is already affecting billions of lives. Extreme weather, AI-generated mis- and disinformation, cost-of-living crisis, cyberattacks and socio-political polarisation are already upon us.
Environmental risks
continue to dominate the risk landscape over all three time frames. Two-thirds of GRPS respondents rank extreme weather as the top risk most likely to present a material crisis on a global scale in 2024, with the warming phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle projected to intensify and persist until May this year. It is also seen as the second-most severe risk over the two-year timeframe and nearly all environmental risks feature among the top 10 over the longer term.
Growing societal polarization
and unchecked technological risks lead to pressure on truth. This features among the top three risks over both the current and two-year time horizons, and ranks 9 over the longer term. In addition, societal polarization and economic downturn are seen as the most interconnected and, therefore, influential risks in the global risks network — as drivers and possible consequences of numerous risks. If commercial incentives and geopolitical imperatives, rather than public interest, remain the primary drivers of the development of AI and other frontier technologies, the digital gap between high- and low-income countries will drive a stark disparity in the distribution of related benefits impacting economic productivity, finance, climate, education and healthcare as well as related job creation.
Misinformation & disinformation
has emerged as the most severe global risk anticipated over the next two years. Foreign and domestic actors alike will leverage this to further widen societal and political divides. The report explicitly mentions that as close to three billion people are expected to head to the electoral polls across several economies — including India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, the United Kingdom and the United States —, the widespread use of misinformation and disinformation, and tools to disseminate it may undermine the legitimacy of newly elected governments. The report emphasises that as truth is undermined, the risk of domestic propaganda and censorship will also rise in turn.
In response to mis- and disinformation, governments could be increasingly empowered to control information based on what they determine to be true
Cost-of-living crisis
remains a major concern particularly for low- and middle-income people as well as severe economic strains for weaker economies. Inflation and economic downturn are among the top 10 risk rankings over the two-year period making the near-term outlook highly uncertain. If interest rates remain relatively high, heavily indebted countries will be particularly exposed to debt distress.
Governance challenges
will see a deeper divide on the international stage between multiple poles of power, and between the Global North and South. This would paralyse international governance mechanisms and divert the attention and resources of major powers away from urgent global risks. Inter-state armed conflict is a new entrant into the top risk rankings over the two-year horizon.
Finally, the Global Risks Report says the global environment clearly predicts that cooperation will come under severe pressure in this fragmented, in-flux world. It also predicts that the next decade will usher in a period of significant change, stretching our adaptive capacity to the limit. In this context, it was indeed a serious challenge for the global leaders and civil society organisations to address and design necessary actions against today’s global risks, finding a path towards Rebuilding Trust at Davos.
Tense Geopolitical Situation
Three potential flash points — Ukraine, the Middle East and Taiwan — threatened to overshadow the summit. The first two need special mention.
Zelensky and Peace Summit
Probably the most prominent appearance at Davos was that of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He proposed a peace plan and urged continued support in the war against Russia.
Eighty countries and one international organisation attended the fourth national security advisers’ meeting on Ukraine’s Peace Formula, which could be treated as a successful diplomatic initiative towards peace
Russian President Vladimir Putin has “precipitated virtually everything he sought to prevent” by launching an invasion against Ukraine to separate Kyiv from the West, Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State, said at a discussion. “Ukraine has been a profound strategic failure for Putin and for Russia, in so many ways,” he said. “You now have a Russia that overall is weaker militarily, it’s weaker economically, it’s weaker diplomatically. Europe has severed its energy dependence on Russia. Ukrainians are more united than they’ve ever been. The NATO alliance is stronger, is larger and will get larger still in the weeks ahead”.
War in the Middle East
The Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 and the war in the Gaza Strip were also a serious concern. Numerous speakers, including UN Secretary-General António Guterres and French President Emmanuel Macron, called for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had the right to defend itself. This clearly indicates that the conflict-resolving mechanisms need to offer more for a ceasefire.
Artificial Intelligence
AI was a big topic alongside geopolitics and the ‘AI House’ attracted many visitors. Challenges, strategies and regulations were discussed. The star guest was the OpenAI founder of ChatGPT Sam Altman who spoke openly about the risks of AI.
Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, said in a main-stage session that guardrails for generative AI must be developed by industry leaders as well as governments while Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff noted that the technology industry was working furiously to make sure AI was developed safely enough to ensure the world avoids a “Hiroshima moment”.
A primary factor contributing to disinformation is AI, which can produce convincing disinformation at lightning speed. So far, global solutions to this challenge have been scarce. The European Union has a provisional deal on regulating AI, but global regulation does not exist. “We don’t want something to go really wrong,” Benioff said and underlined the fact that Rebuilding Trust was highly relevant for AI.
Future Growth Initiative
Global economic growth has slowed in recent years and there is a need to move forward with new solutions to replace past measures — putting people at the centre. This was the crucial message put forward in the Future of Growth Initiative. Global growth is lagging. Innovation systems are rapidly changing the structure of economies. The climate crisis hovers over every significant economic decision. Inequality is fraying the social fabric in many countries. And the importance of resilience has been starkly demonstrated in recent years by the shock of Covid-19 and geopolitical disruptions to supply chains, it said.
To address these challenges, the forum launched the Future of Growth Initiative aimed at supporting policymakers in balancing growth, innovation, inclusion, sustainability and resilience goals. In 2024-25, the initiative is:
- Convening the Future of Growth Consortium, a coalition of ministers, CEOs and other senior leaders who share the vision of a strong growth agenda anchored in societal and environmental vitality and resilience. It will provide strategic guidance and ambassadorship for the Forum’s Future of Growth Initiative over a two-year campaign to move from the growth of the past to growth fit for the future.
- Developing and launching the Future of Growth Framework in early 2024 to support policymakers in assessing the character and nature of a country’s economic growth and balancing innovation, inclusion, sustainability and resilience goals.
- Convening a Global Future Council on the Future of Growth, comprising over 20 economists and thought leaders, to provide intellectual guidance on new approaches to growth.
The Future of Growth Initiative works across five interconnected areas: Economic Growth and Transformation; Work, Wages and Job Creation; Education, Skills and Learning; Diversity, Equity and Inclusion and Social Justice; and Global Risks.
Climate Change
The ultimate goal in Davos was to achieve carbon-neutral consumption by 2050 while providing global access to energy, water and food. The summit wanted a consensus where everyone has their voices heard on how this can be achieved.
Extreme weather as the top risk is most likely to present a material crisis on a global scale in 2024. Misinformation and social polarisation were the other two risks, and are closely linked to how politicians and businesses will decide to respond to the climate and nature challenge.
Real change will need financing. Moving people and systems away from fossil fuels toward clean technologies and helping individuals and businesses adapt to the impacts of climate change will not come cheap. “If the right financing is not put in place, emissions will not fall in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement and many will be left frustrated if they feel only the rich can afford to adopt new technologies.” A lack of support for the poorest in society will increase polarisation, division and risks, encouraging more people to vote for candidates who offer simple solutions to complicated problems, was also a warning voice at the deliberations.
Given this background, the fact that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen didn’t bring paradigm-shifting plans to fund Europe’s clean-tech industry raised many an eyebrow. Times may be tough and the outlook difficult, but if all business and policy leaders have to offer the world is meagre words and gloomy outlooks, the change that they understand needs to happen won ’t be forthcoming. This was the general opinion of the observers.
Leaders like Guterres and Chinese Premier Li Qiang highlighted the importance of discarding prejudice. They discussed bridging differences and working collectively to address global challenges. World Bank Group President Ajay S Banga stressed the interconnectedness of crises, including poverty, climate change and healthcare.
Davos also emphasised the need for a new growth model that balances economic drivers with innovation, inclusion, sustainability and resilience
Several world leaders, including Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, called for a re-evaluation of globalisation and policies that enhance people’s lives.
As the world grapples with complex issues, Davos 2024 provided a space for collaborative solutions and partnerships to shape a positive trajectory for global progress that creates a more sustainable, inclusive and equitable future.
(The author is a Humboldt-Expert in Agriculture, Environment and Cooperation, and was invitee to Open Forum, WEF, Davos)
