Summer temperatures are rising in many parts of the globe. Hotter regions predicted to get hotter with changing climate. Therefore, by 2050, about 75% of world’s population could depend on air conditioners
Published Date – 08:43 PM, Sat – 30 December 23
Summer temperatures are rising in many parts of the globe. Hotter regions predicted to get hotter with changing climate. Therefore, by 2050, about 75% of world’s population could depend on air conditioners
By Dr O. Prasada Rao
Anthropogenic emissions
According to the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) A6 Synthesis Report, human activities, principally through emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs), have unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature reaching 1.1°C in the decade 2011-2020 above the level existed during 1850-1900. It is expected to reach or exceed 1.50C threshold in the next 20 years. Based on current emission scenarios, the increase can be 2.70C to 3.60C by the end of 21st century.
Carbon dioxide (CO2), a part of GHGs, contributes more to climate change compared to other gases, hence the concern is mainly on reducing its emissions. Historical cumulative net CO2 emissions from 1850 to 2019 were 2400 ± 240 giga tonnes, of which more than half (58%) occurred between 1850 and 1989, and about 42% occurred between 1990 and 2019, means significantly increased in the last three decades only due to human activities and steep rise in energy demand. The global carbon dioxide emissions were negligible in 1850 & 1900, but have increased significantly to 37.1 billion tonnes due to rise in population by 6.38 billion over last 122 years.
Airconditioning usage
According to the International Energy Agency, approximately 2.8 billion people live in countries where the average temperature is more than 250C, less than 10% use air conditioners now. Summer temperatures are rising in many parts of the globe. Hotter regions predicted to get hotter with changing climate. Therefore, by 2050, about 75% of world’s population could depend on air conditioners.
In a warming world, use of air conditioners by people to stay cool, that is unavoidable, further contributes to climate change due to emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels used for generation of electricity to run them. IEA terms it “Cold crunch” as increasing air conditioning demand would require new electricity capacity equivalent to the present capacity of the US, EU and Japan combined.
Europe has been warming twice as fast as the global average since the 1980s as per a report issued by the World Meteorological Organization and the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. In 2022, France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, United Kingdom etc. had their warmest year on record.
Climate change can cause extreme cold weather events too. According to a study published in the journal ‘Science’, extreme cold events could be attributed to Arctic warming that lead to major cold waves hitting north America sweeping from Canada to northern Mexico in February 2021. The US Energy Information Administration reported that heating and cooling accounted for 42% of energy consumption in the residential sector in 2019. This is going to substantially increase due to climate change.
Meat related emissions
The global average meat consumption per person per year in 2021 was 34 Kg. The top meat-eating countries are USA, Australia, Argentina, New Zealand, Spain with per capita per year consumption ranging from 100-124 kg. On the other hand, number of African countries consume less than 20 Kg (FAO). According to a study by The Guardian, meat production accounts for nearly 60% of all greenhouse gases from food production. Another source, Times For Change, states that one Kg of beef production creates 13.3 kgs of CO2, while it is 28 times less for wheat. Meat production is projected to increase, so also, CO2 emissions from it. But it should fall to mitigate climate change
Deforestation
The world has lost one- third of its forests since the end of last ice age, 10,000 years ago, half of it in the last century alone. The net loss in forests globally was 4.7 million hectares per year over the decade since 2010 i.e. 47 million hectares during 2010-2019 (Our World Data). As the population increases, the demand for land for various purposes such as agriculture, housing, and infrastructure also increases, which must be met from forests. As a result of deforestation and degradation, some tropical forests now emit more carbon than they capture, turning them from a carbon ‘sink’ into a carbon source (NOAA Research)
Carbon footprint
Carbon footprint is an important factor in climate change mitigation. China has the highest carbon footprint of about 8.4 tons per person per year, while India has 0.56 ton. If India’s carbon footprint is increased to that of China’s it would be detrimental to the environment and would exacerbate the situation of climate change. Only 17% global population lives in developed countries, rest 83% need to consume energy more than the former to reach a reasonable standard of living that further worsen climate change.
Need for population control
The estimated global population was 1.26 billion in 1850, rose to 1.6 billion in 1900 and 7.98 billion in 2022. The United Nations predicts that the world population will reach 10.4 billion towards the end of the 21st century. Human activities are the main driver of climate change. Primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas for economic development and comfortable living; deforestation to meet land and food requirement; causing irreversible environmental degradation and following multifaceted politics.
As climate continues to threaten the well-being of the entire planet, scientists as per an article in Science Journal suggested it’s time to take population control more seriously than ever. They wrote that slowing future population growth could reduce global CO2 emissions by 40% or more in the long term. Further adding smaller population would make it easier for nations to adapt to the inevitable lifestyle shifts necessitated due to climate change.
Reducing population size would be advantageous for climate change mitigation, on the grounds that lower population would naturally correspond to lower emissions. But the primary determinant of the eventual amount of climate change is not the emissions rate, but rather cumulative emissions accumulated over a century. Population control can reduce emission rate and addition to cumulative CO2 inventory in atmosphere.
Natural carbon sinks absorb roughly half of atmospheric CO2 including oceans and forests in a major way. They absorb half of human related CO2 emissions. Forests capture about 16 billion tonnes of CO2 each year. These natural carbon sinks are being destroyed by human activities such as deforestation, land use change and pollution. Controlling the population can avoid destruction of natural carbon sink.
Robert Engelman, a senior fellow at the Population Institute in Washington, D.C., feels population is an issue in climate change. It is underreported, underrated, under-talked-about as an issue in climate change.
Sustainable population refers to human population the planet Earth can sustain. Estimates for it vary widely ranging from 0.65 billion to 9.8 billion, with 8 billion being typical estimate. The estimates were based on land & water resources, food production, energy consumption and waste management, but none on climate change point of view.
As per Malthusian Theory of Population, nature has its own ways of keeping a check on the increasing population. It brings down the population size to match with the available food supply through famines, earthquakes, floods, epidemics, wars etc. The theory may not be valid now since food security can be maintained and loss of population significantly reduced during natural calamities, by technology.
Conclusions
People contribute directly and indirectly to anthropogenic emissions of CO2, at the same time reduce the capacity of carbon sink on the planet. As the population increases emissions increase, however, the quantity depends upon economic status, standard of living, adaptation to climate change etc. Life style changes can support mitigation of climate change, but limited. Lesser population is better option.
The goal of mitigation is to avoid significant human interference with the Earth’s climate in order to stabilise CO2 gas levels, by reducing the carbon footprint of individuals, in a sufficient timeframe, to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally, food production is maintained and economic development proceeds in a sustainable manner.
Efforts towards population control include family planning, education, healthcare, and economic development. The challenges to overcome include cultural and religious beliefs, political opposition, ethical concerns, preference for male child, unsupportive partners or elders, lack of resources & access to family planning etc. However, population control, besides checking climate change, can improve economy, health, environment sustainability, gender equality and standard of living of surviving people.
The author is an retired scientist, Council of Scientific & Industrial Research
