A flashback to 2014 may bring back bitter memories when the Congressmen had not only unleashed propaganda but believed their own claims that the Grand Old Party would retain power as it delivered on its promise to carve out Telangana from united AP
Published Date – 10:52 PM, Fri – 17 November 23
Can Congress repeat its Karnataka victory model in Andhra Pradesh in the 2024 Assembly elections? Can it dislodge YSRCP government there? Atleast, can it be an alternative to TDP or a TDP-led opposition alliance of Jana Sena and BJP? You may say that I am joking because the Congress had virtually drawn a blank in Andhra Pradesh (residuary State after Telangana State was carved out) both in 2014 and 2019 Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. In 2014, TDP grabbed power and in 2019, YSRCP wrested the reins in AP. You may say that, given the political situation in AP now, the Congress may yet again draw a blank in 2024 elections, since the grand old party still remains just a marginal player in AP politics.
So, the Congress cannot replicate its Karnataka model in AP. But can the Grand Old Party do it in Telangana assembly elections now? This is what the Congressmen are tom-toming to the world. They say that the promise of five guarantees (with addition of one more here) is doing wonders for the party in Telangana even as Karnataka victory has galvanised its leaders and cadres and enthused the people here in this State. However, a flashback to 2014 may bring back bitter memories when the Congressmen had not only unleashed propaganda but believed their own claims that the Grand Old Party would retain power as it delivered on its promise to carve out Telangana from united AP.
When the TRS government dissolved Telangana Assembly prematurely and called for early elections in 2018, Congressmen were very exuberant of their victory yet again, since their party had formed a Grand Alliance or Maha Kutami (designated as “Praja Kutami”) with its arch-rival Telugu Desam Party as well as CPI and Telangana Jana Samithi (led by Prof Kodandaram) to trounce the TRS. On both occasions, the Congressmen were so enthusiastic that they had begun a race to pip one another for the Chief Minister’s post. There were lot many ministerial aspirants, even making claims to their favourite portfolios.
The people of Telangana were reluctant to entrust power to Congress in 2014 since they credited TRS founder K Chandrasekhar Rao with forcing the hands of Grand Old Party to deliver separate Telangana State. In 2018, the Grand alliance proved disastrous not only for the Congress but also for TDP and TJS. The successive defeats in Assembly polls in 2014 and 2018 had caused much disillusionment and consternation among the Congressmen.
In 2018, the then TPCC president N Uttam Kumar Reddy had promised not to shave his beard till he brings the Congress to power. He has not been able to fulfil his vow till now. In mid-2021, the Congress entrusted the PCC Chief’s post to a leader from TDP who had jumped onto the Congress bandwagon in 2017, two years after he figured in the “cash for vote” scam in Telangana Legislative Council polls.
Now, we hear that there are no fewer than 10 contenders for the CM’s post in the Congress– the current PCC president A Revanth Reddy, MPs N Uttar Kumar Reddy and Komatireddy Venkat Reddy, former minister K Jana Reddy (from the politically dominant Reddy caste), CLP leader Bhatti Vikramarka, former deputy CM C Damodar Raj Narasimha and G Vivekanand from Dalit community, Seethakka from the Scheduled Tribes and former MPs Poonam Prabhakar and Anjan Kumar Yadav from the Backward Classes. A Minority leader who is contesting his 9th Assembly election now (though he was successful only twice in the past) is clamouring for Deputy CM’s post with Home portfolio after voluntarily opting out from CM’s race in favour of Reventh Reddy. Have not you heard of the adage “if wishes were horses?”
But what is the track record of the Congress before and after the formation of Telangana State? The data shows that since 2009, the first elections after fresh delimitation of the Assembly constituencies was done, the Congress could not secure even half of the 119 seats. In 2009, in undivided AP when Congress retained power, the Grand Old Party could secure only 50 assembly seats in Telangana region. Its vote share in the region came to 33.36 percent.
In the 2014 assembly polls in Telangana State, the Congress won only 21 seats and its vote share plummeted to 25.04 percent. In the 2018 assembly polls, due partly to its alliance with TDP and TJS, the Congress won 19 seats and its vote share rose to 28.74 percent. The results were quite disappointing for a party that claimed to be riding a wave against the TRS.
Though the Congress won 12 Lok Sabha seats out of 17 and polled 36.68 percent of popular votes in Telangana region in the 2009 polls in undivided AP, the party’s tally of Lok Sabha seats slumped to two in 2014 with its vote share declining to 24.67 percent when the polls were held just before formation of Telangana State after the passage of the AP Reorganisation Act. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress managed to raise its tally to three seats with vote share of 29.79 percent in Telangana even as the TDP had stayed away from contesting the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Even when simultaneous polls were held to the Lok Sabha and Assembly, the performance of the Congress was a story in contrast. In 2009, in undivided AP, its vote share was 3.30 percent higher in the Lok Sabha compared to simultaneous Assembly elections. In 2014, its vote share was 0.37 percent higher in Assembly compared to simultaneous Lok Sabha polls in Telangana. However in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, its vote count was 1.05 percent higher compared to what it got in the Assembly elections in 2018. The difference in vote shares of Congress in Assembly and Lok Sabha elections is attributed to the presence of party rebels in Assembly polls and their absence in Lok Sabha hustings.
Now the Congress leaders are in an upbeat mood even as the disappointed ticket aspirants are making the lives of the party’s “official nominees” difficult in various constituencies across the State. The Congress candidates actually started campaigning only after the party released its list in four instalments between 15th October and 9th November, even though the party’s state and central leaders have been organising yatras and public meetings over the last few months. As the polling day nears, the Congress propaganda war will reach its crescendo. But whether the party will win the trust of the people of the State to take over its reins remains a big question. The answer will become crystal clear on 3rd December. Bye till then.
