Hamas attack is bound to change the nature of the conflict in the region in the days ahead
Published Date – 11:24 PM, Sun – 8 October 23
Hamas attack is bound to change the nature of the conflict in the region in the days ahead
It’s a 9/11 moment for Israel. The surprise, multi-mode attacks deep into southern Israel by Hamas militants, killing over 250 people and taking several soldiers and civilians as hostages, come as a stark reminder that stability in the Middle East remains a mirage. A full-scale conflict mounted by Hamas with the support of Iran-backed Hezbollah—firing a wave of rockets towards cities as far as Jerusalem, infiltrating 22 Israeli towns and army bases through land, air and sea routes and indiscriminately killing people in their homes, kidnapping civilians and soldiers and parading the dead bodies in the streets — has shocked the world.
The scale and the precision of the deadly assault that came on a Jewish holiday has exposed the chinks in the famed security surveillance of Israel as the country looked weak and vulnerable in the face of coordinated terror strikes. This is bound to change the nature of the conflict in the region in the days ahead. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared war amid support pouring in from the western world. Given that 250 Israelis have died so far and an unknown number been taken hostage by Hamas, an Israeli invasion of Gaza — and even a temporary reoccupation of the territory— cannot be ruled out now. A major war in the region could have unforeseen consequences, disrupting the ongoing diplomatic efforts of the United States President Joe Biden and Netanyahu to bring about a Saudi recognition of Israel in return for defence guarantees from America.
There would also be pressure on Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group that controls southern Lebanon, to open up a second front in northern Israel. Successive prime ministers in the past, including Netanyahu, had rejected calls to send thousands of troops into Gaza to try to destroy armed Palestinian groups like Hamas, given the huge costs involved. However, this strategy may change now. After the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, an internal struggle between the Fatah movement of the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, and the more radical Islamist Hamas movement ended with Hamas taking control of the territory in 2007, prompting Israel to try to isolate Gaza even
The timing of the audacious attacks suggests that Hamas is increasingly frustrated over the deepening Israeli ties with the Arab world, particularly Saudi Arabia which is favourably disposed to normalising relations with Israel, potentially neglecting the Palestinian cause. Iran, a sworn enemy of Israel, is an important backer of Hamas as well as Hezbollah and has supplied both groups with weapons and intelligence. Still in a state of shock, Israel will now have to deal with the possibility of the war opening up on multiple fronts. The future contours of the crisis will be decided by how Hezbollah responds; whether to stay on the sidelines or activate its fighters to attack Israel.
