We must avoid making hasty conclusions on India-Maldives ties based on an election result as they have several dimensions, from history and culture to economic linkages

By Dhananjay Tripathi

For Indian foreign policy, South Asia as a region becomes more of a challenge. South Asian regionalism has not moved much, and there is little to showcase as an achievement. In the last decade, China has also made deep inroads politically and economically in the region. It is no longer a China-Pakistan all-weather friendship, the only cause of worry for Indian policymakers. Through its substantial economic investment in the region, China has developed close ties with different South Asian countries.

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Today, China is formidably present in Nepal, has a strong investment in Sri Lanka, supplies military hardware to Bangladesh, and is sincerely trying to resolve the border dispute with Bhutan. For India, all of these are issues of concern and adding to this is the recent election results in the Maldives.

An island country in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), the Maldives is strategically located and referred to by a few analysts as a gateway to the Indian Ocean. The country is small; nevertheless, it has a critical relevance in light of the growing competition between India and China in the IOR.

The island nation recently elected a new government headed by Mohamed Muizzu of the People’s National Congress (PNC). The PNC is a new political party in the Maldives, although Muizzu is quite an experienced politician. He was the housing minister, served as a mayor of Male, and is close to the former Maldivian president, Abdulla Yameen.

As the housing minister, Muizzu was directly responsible for the implementation of the Sinamale Bridge project. This bridge connects the capital Male to Velana International Airport and is one of Maldives’ important China-supported infrastructure projects. While critics raised question of the Chinese debt trap, many in the Maldives believe the Sinamale Bridge eased their lives in Male. This is why there is always a mixed response in the Maldives on the Sinamale Bridge, while most Indian experts only read it in the context of China.

Indian Troops

It was Abdulla Yameen, who, as President of the Maldives (2013-2018), positioned himself close to China. Yameen failed to get another term and, after that, faced several corruption charges. Yameen played the ‘anti-India card’ as his political opponent, and earlier President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih (2018-2023) was close to New Delhi. To counter Solih, Yameen, now convicted for corruption, started an ‘India-out’ campaign. There are Indian troops in the Maldives, but only for maintaining some essential and emergency services. There are patrol vessels, Dornier aircraft and helicopters mainly for surveillance and medical evacuation and 77 Indian personnel for its operation and maintenance.

Going by his election propaganda, Muizzu was expected to take a political stand on the presence of these troops in the Maldives, so one should not be surprised by his current posturing. However, Muizzu has to think about alternatives for continuing the emergency services currently provided by the Indian personnel. Moreover, by taking a strong public standpoint on Indian troops and some 100 agreements immediately after his swearing-in ceremony, he already indicated the direction of his foreign policy. This kind of move by any new government requires some caution as it reveals all of a player’s cards at the beginning of the game.

Balanced Approach

The Maldives is a country where almost 29,000 Indians work in different sectors like healthcare, education and tourism. It is one of the favourites for Indian tourists and acquired the status of a star destination after the end of the pandemic. Indian tourists are still at the top of Maldives’ list of arrivals and average stays.

Over the years, India has made huge investments in the Maldives, supporting development and community-based programmes. Notably, India had given enough Covid-19 vaccines to the Maldives. It financially backed it during the crisis resulting from a drought in the tourism industry due to the pandemic. India was also the first responder during the 2004 tsunami and when Male faced a severe water crisis in 2014. Due to the geographical proximity, India is naturally the most dependable neighbour of the Maldives, and maintaining solid political ties with such a country is significant for any Maldivian establishment.

Swinging between India and China is now a visible part of the foreign policy of many countries in the sub-continent. We have noticed a similar trend in Nepal, but Kathmandu remains sensitive about keeping a balance between India and China. For geo-strategically located Maldives, the country must not become a battleground of geo-political rivalry between major powers. The IOR is gaining immense relevance among the world’s major powers, and the Maldives has to consider these factors by taking a long-term perspective, on how to engage both with China and India.

What for India?

The overdose of bilateralism and lack of a regional approach is causing trouble for the Indian foreign policy in South Asia. India would have dealt better with the region by strengthening regional institutions and investing in South Asian regionalism. India is primarily a South Asian power and has to consolidate its position in the region to achieve larger objectives in world politics.

Relying on a few political parties and personalities in the region will not help it in the long run, and India must develop a regional strategy. Also, the strong presence of China in the region is a reality, and this fact cannot be wished away. The better way to deal with China is to promote South Asian regionalism to benefit all and create regional interdependence. Due to its economic size, India is likely to gain in the process and so are the other economies of the region. Indeed, for India there is a need for rethinking on South Asia and the Maldives must be taken as a case study.

Lastly, we must avoid making hasty conclusions on India-Maldives ties based on an election result. India-Maldives ties have several dimensions, from history and culture to economic linkages. India should continue with its development policy in Maldives. Likewise, it is equally vital for President Muizzu to maintain a cordial relationship with New Delhi for the long-term interest of his country.