Apparently, the saffron party is aiming to gain power and is, otherwise, ready to settle for number 2 position.
Published Date – 07:17 PM, Tue – 21 November 23
By Syed Amin Jafri
Hyderabad: Though BJP’s star campaigners—Modi, Shah, Nadda, Yogi, union ministers and other chief ministers– are descending on Telangana to bolster the party’s chances in the Assembly elections, there remains the proverbial slip between the cup and the lip. Apparently, the saffron party is aiming to gain power and is, otherwise, ready to settle for number 2 position. But it seems poised to be remain “the third player.” It hopes to be a “king-maker” if the two main contenders fall short of numbers. That option is also foreclosed since the BRS or Congress will not do “business” with the saffron party even if either of them need support to cross the halfway mark.
Then, why is it that BJP is resorting to all tricks and staging a high-voltage campaign by spending fortunes on the Assembly polls in Telangana? The reason is obvious. Firstly, the Modi-Shah duo seek to checkmate the regional parties that question the BJP and Congress hegemony and dominate the political scene in their States. Secondly, Telangana is one of the six States where BJP is yet to wrest power or make its mark. Its mission remains unfinished in West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, despite repeated attempts in successive elections since 2014.
BJP’s USP of enjoying power at the Centre is invoked to grab the reins in the States under the concept of “Double-Engine” governments. But, somehow, the BJP could not emerge as an alternative to BRS despite its modest successes in Assembly and Lok Sabha elections in Telangana since 2014. BJP won Secunderabad Lok Sabha constituency and 5 assembly seats in the State in the simultaneous elections in 2014. It could secure only one assembly seat in 2018 though its tally dramatically rose to 4 in the Lok Sabha polls in 2019.
This time, the saffron party is contesting 111 assembly seats and allotted 8 seats to its ally, Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party. In 2018, the BJP had contested 117 seats and its candidates forfeited their security deposit in 104 constituencies. The party secured 6.96 per cent of the popular votes. However, in the Lok Sabha elections, the party’s vote share jumped to 19.65 percent.
BJP has a long history of contesting elections in Telangana since the first general elections. From 1951 till 1971-72, the party had fielded its candidates on the banner of its earlier avatar, Bharatiya Jana Sangh (BJS). In 1977-80, Jana Sangh leaders were part of the Janata Party. The BJS was re-launched as BJP in 1980 and since then the party has contested all the successive Assembly and Lok Sabha elections in Telangana and the (now residuary) Andhra Pradesh. However, a closer look at its performance would show that electoral alliances have been the bane of the party right from its revival in 1980.
The saffron party has aligned with TDP too often, stunting its growth in AP and now Telangana. In the nine successive assembly elections held since 1983, the party aligned with the TDP five times and contested on its own only four times. In the 10 successive Lok Sabha elections, the BJP aligned with TDP five times and fought on its own five times. Consequently, the saffron party’s presence in State Assembly and Lok Sabha from the State has fluctuated wildly both in united AP and Telangana. The party also has nominal presence in the local bodies—panchayat raj institutions and urban local bodies in the State.
It is apparent that the BJP has been working for building up the party apparatus across Telangana in the last five years. When Eatala Rajender was dropped from KCR cabinet for “anti-party” activities, the BJP promptly tapped him to create a “Suvendu Adhikari” clone in Telangana to take on the BRS founder. However, the tough fight that the saffron party faced to get him re-elected in the bypoll led the party top-brass in Delhi to reassess the potential of Eatala as BJP face to counter KCR in the 2023 assembly polls.
Soon after A Revanth Reddy was appointed as Telangana PCC chief, Prime Minister Narendra Modi promoted union Minister of State G Kishen Reddy to Cabinet rank in July 2021 to project him as the Reddy face of the BJP for CM’s post. However, Kishen Reddy, too, could not propel the party into a fighting force. Moreover, rampant infighting among the party’s senior leaders and juniors as well as all-and-sundry defectors from other parties, particularly the Congress, took its toll on the party’s cohesion as a disciplined force and exposed the Congress culture that seeped into the saffron party. Opportunism has its own pitfalls and this is what the BJP leadership has learnt the hard way.
Nepotism and favoritism in selection of candidates have exposed the fissures in the party. The reverse migration from BJP to “mother parties” of the turncoats has turned into an exodus and several election-related party committees witnessed the spectre of their chairmen deserting them in the midst of election mode. Not to talk about Panna Pramukhs, the BJP does not even have polling agents in all villages across the State. The carpet campaigning by the party bigwigs from far and near is hardly going to matter.
During the 2018 Assembly elections, too, BJP had launched a similar blitzkrieg to capture power. Swami Paripoornananda heli-hopped around the State, addressing election meetings and road-shows in over 100 constituencies. However, all efforts came to nought. The BJP could win a mere one seat and secure runner-up status in 10 constituencies. Its candidates lost security deposits in the remaining segments.
The bypoll wins in Dubbak in November 2020 and Huzurabad in November 2021 and GHMC elections in December 2020 were touted as evidence of BJP’s dramatic rise as the alternative to BRS, overtaking the Congress in this role. But the crucial defeat in Munugode bypoll in November 2022 burst the BJP bubble, much before the saffron party lost power in neighbouring Karnataka in May this year.
BJP, thus, finds itself on the crossroads in Telangana. If it cannot save its face with a tally of assembly seats in “double-digit” now, it may draw a blank in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in the State. Thankfully, the party’s state leaders may have the consolation of laying the blame for the poll debacle in Telangana at Modi-Shah doorsteps for the second time in a row.
